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The Joys Of Catching Yourself Out.
I’ve developed a strange habit recently. Whenever I have a particularly strong feeling, instinct or opinion, I’ll spend a few moments trying to argue against it. I’ll research conflicting opinions, I’ll examine my points for biases and logical errors, and when I discover a flaw in my thinking, I actually feel this perverse sense of satisfaction. It’s like peeling off a scab.
I’ve been doing this a form of training for my instincts. Or rather, I’ve been doing it to train myself not to rely on my instincts when it’s not appropriate. It turns out that two things are true; I rely on my instincts a lot, and most of the time I shouldn’t. I suspect the same is true for you.
What I’ve noticed over the month or so that I’ve been doing this, is that it’s much easier for me to question my instincts (or have them questioned by someone else) without feeling like I’m being attacked or that there’s any problem with my instincts being wrong. In fact, in most situations, I’ve come to expect my instincts to be wrong. And that’s a good thing…let me explain.
Your instincts are just…they’re not good.
A little over a month ago I watched this video about survivorship bias. In the…
